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Analysis

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  1. Analysis: Liberalizing global trade in mode 5 services: How much is it worth?
    • Abstract: Chief economist note on the growing role of services inputs in manufacturing exports ("services in boxes") which has led to a proposal for a new modality of exporting services (mode 5 services) beyond the four modes of supply in the GATS.
    • 27 July 2017
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 696Kb
  2. Analysis: Are EU exports gender-blind? Some key features of women participation in exporting activities in the EU
    • Abstract: This analysis sheds new light on the gender-balance of the employment opportunities supported by extra-EU exports. We show that in 2011 almost 12 million women in the EU had jobs thanks to the exports of goods and services to the rest of the world...
    • 20 June 2017
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 743Kb
  3. Analysis: TRADE AND LABOUR ADJUSTMENT IN EUROPE: WHAT ROLE FOR THE EUROPEAN GLOBALIZATION ADJUSTMENT FUND?
    • Abstract: Trade agreements have become a growing source of concerns due to potential job losses that some sectors can incur as a result of increased competition. Although the economic literature shows that the overall results of trade liberalization are positive, some sectors may be adversely affected, leading to job losses and adjustment costs. One instrument designed to deal with such adjustment costs is the European Globalization Adjustment Fund (EGF), established by the European Commission in 2006. By jointly funding with EU Member States active labour market policies, the EGF is a tool that supports workers who lost their jobs due to globalisation. Despite the relevance of the EGF as trade adjustment mechanism, the existing evidence suggests that its use is still limited compared to its potential. The paper tries to review some of the constraining factors identified in the latest mid-term evaluation by the European Commission and suggest several avenues for further improvement.
    • 3 May 2017
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 764Kb
  4. Analysis: Chief Economist Notes: Can we put a price on extending the scope of the GPA? First quantitative assessment
    • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of domestic preferences elimination in government procurement agreement (GPA) parties.
    • 30 March 2017
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 681Kb
  5. Analysis: The Economic Impact of the EU - East African Community Economic Partnership Agreement
    • Abstract: The present report is part of the "Economic analyses of negotiated outcome" undertaken by DG TRADE at the end of negotiations. Contrary to earlier reports, it does not rely on hypothetical scenarios but on the actual outcome of the negotiation between the parties, with a view to provide information to all stakeholders involved in the adoption process of the agreement, as well as to the wider public.
    • 23 February 2017
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 1754Kb
  6. Analysis: TRADE IN SERVICES BY GATS MODES OF SUPPLY: STATISTICAL CONCEPTS AND FIRST EU ESTIMATES
    • Abstract: Services account for an overwhelming share of overall economic activities and are increasingly delivered across borders under various modes of supply. Given their growing importance for trade negotiators, the availability of statistics on the international supply of services detailed by services category, mode of supply and partner country is critically important for services trade policy making. Based on a recent Eurostat project, this paper presents the first estimates for EU trade in services by modes of supply and explores possible avenues to build a global services dataset by modes of supply, building on the latest European initiatives in this area.
    • 30 December 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 674Kb
  7. Analysis: NAVIGATING NON-TARIFF MEASURES - INSIGHTS FROM A BUSINESS SURVEY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
    • Abstract: The paper examines how non-tariff measures (NTMs) applied by the European Union’s major trading partners impacts EU exporters of goods – results are based on a survey of 8,100 companies from across 26 sectors in the EU’s 28 member states – describes the survey methodology; presents the main results obtained in terms of impact on EU companies, by type of NTM, effects on companies of different sizes, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises; draws conclusions on the importance of the role of the EU’s negotiating agenda and implementation work to facilitate international trade. It includes survey data statistics and bibliographical references.
    • 14 December 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 1560Kb
  8. Analysis: TRADE EFFECTS OF THE EU-KOREA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED AND OBSERVED OUTCOMES
    • Abstract: It is common that observers simply look at the bilateral trade figures following the introduction of a free trade agreement (FTA) and try assess whether the agreement has increased trade or not (since trying to assess what the level of trade would have been in the theoretical absence of the FTA is too complex). The present short note therefore compares the economic assessment of the negotiated outcome of the EU-Korea FTA, carried out for the European Commission by CEPII/ ATLASS, with observed data. Our results point to sound projections against observed data at the aggregate level and in the largest sectors such as Machinery as opposed to trade in less important sector.
    • 26 September 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 679Kb
  9. Analysis: Assessing the economic impact of the Trade Agreement between the European Union and Ecuador
    • Abstract: This report updates the economic impact assessment for Ecuador that was included in the original Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) prepared in relation to a possible agreement between the European Union (EU) and the signatory countries of the Andean Community. The original SIA covered the full Andean Community and was finalised in 2009. Colombia and Peru were the first Andean Community countries to sign the Trade Agreement with the EU, in 2012. The economic assessment carried out further to the signing of the Agreement, on the basis of the text of the final Agreement, therefore only considered these two countries (Francois et al., 2012). This report focuses on Ecuador and provides an economic assessment of the accession of Ecuador to the EU-Colombia/Peru Trade Agreement.
    • 15 June 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 1782Kb
  10. Analysis: The Economic Impact of the SADC EPA Group - EU Economic Partnership Agreement
    • Abstract: The economic impact of the EPA was assessed using a dynamic general equilibrium model, tailor-made for trade policy analysis and adjusted to the specific characteristics which apply to the southern African countries. In a conservative manner, only the impact of the tariff reductions was assessed, i.e. what is easily quantifiable from the agreement. Essential provisions of the EPA (rules of origin, trade facilitation, cooperation on norms, and development assistance) were not considered in the model even though they weigh in favour of SADC EPA countries. The results presented in this study are therefore expected to be exceeded over time.
    • 10 June 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 2016Kb
  11. Analysis: The Expansion of the Information Technology Agreement: An Economic Assessment
    • Abstract: The ITA expansion covers about 9-13% of current world trade with around 90% of trade in these products taking place among ITA members. The ITA expansion has 25 members (including the EU as one member) and cuts tariffs to zero on a list of 201 products. A large part of the tariff liberalizations occur instantaneously upon entry into force, but for some sensitive products, tariff reductions are staged over up to seven years. With a view to the future, it is shown that the EU would benefit from focussing negotiation capital on expanding the ITA in terms of country overage and so as to reduce NTBs.
    • 7 April 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 1489Kb
  12. Analysis: The Economic Impact of the West Africa - EU Economic Partnership Agreement
    • Abstract: This report is part of the Economic analyses of negotiated outcome undertaken by DG TRADE at the end of negotiations. It analyses the economic impact of the West Africa - EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), in particular the impact of trade liberalization in West African countries. It also describes the content of the Agreement.
    • 31 March 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 2230Kb
  13. Analysis: EU EXPORTS TO THE WORLD: OVERVIEW OF EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME
    • Abstract: • As trade agreements create the conditions for an increase in EU exports they also foster more and better job opportunities for European citizens. From 1995 to 2011 the number of jobs in the EU that were supported by exports of goods and services to the rest of the world increased by 67% to reach around 31 million. These represented 1 in 7 jobs across the 27 EU Member States (up from 1 in 11 jobs in 1995). They tended to be high-skilled and were on average better paid. • In order to remain competitive EU exporters increasingly rely also on foreign inputs. This means that the employment they support progressively spans beyond the EU's borders. In 2011 about 19 million jobs outside the EU depended on EU exports. This means that in 2011 a total of 50 million people around the world had jobs thanks to the EU exporting industries. • Exports are important for employment in all Member States. In 2011 only in Greece (7%), Portugal (8%) and Spain (9%) did the EU exports to the rest of the world support less than 10% of total employment. In Luxembourg they supported a third of all jobs; in Ireland 25%. • Increasingly the jobs supported by EU exports are related to services. Services exports are growing fast but that is not the whole story. The importance of services sectors as suppliers of inputs to the production of the goods for export (“mode 5 services” exports) also stands out from the data. In 2011, 40% of the employment supported by the exports of the primary and manufacturing sectors was in fact in services. • The sales of goods and services to the US market were responsible for 15% of the EU employment supported by EU exports; other key markets to sustaining
    • 3 February 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 1739Kb
  14. Analysis: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN IMPORT BAN: A CGE ANALYSIS
    • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the Russian embargo from 7 August 2014 on certain agricultural food products from the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia. The effects of this economic sanction are analysed in the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a particular focus on bilateral and total exports, production and welfare. The detailed, based on real trade data, calibration of the model allows for an exact identification of the sectoral shares and prohibitive tariffs aggregated to match the CGE model’s sectoral level of aggregation. In addition, the paper carries on a validation exercise to compare the model’s predictions with real trade data developments. The modelling simulation results show that the impact of the ban on total exports of the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia are limited. Total extra-EU exports decline by merely 0.12%. Nevertheless at a disaggregate level there are sectors – ‘vegetables and fruits’, ‘other meat’ and ‘dairy products’ – which experience two digit percentage change declines.
    • 10 December 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 695Kb
  15. Analysis: THE EU-KOREA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: ANTICIPATION, TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND IMPACT
    • Abstract: Anticipatory trade effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) have been documented in various papers. That is, trade between two partners appears to increase before an FTA between them has entered into force. Several reasons have been put forward trying to explain this phenomenon; among them reduced trade policy uncertainty. Firstly, using an econometric framework, this paper is one of the first to explore the role of anticipation and trade policy uncertainty (e.g. the presence of unbound tariffs and lower applied tariffs than bound tariffs) in the case of a recently concluded deep and comprehensive EU FTA, including significant behind the border measures. We do so by separately considering the impact of the FTA during different periods of time. Secondly, we use monthly data at a lower level of aggregation (8-digit level) compared to previous studies and we account for changes in the EU product classification over time. Thirdly, we distinguish between the impact on products which are actually subject to liberalisation under the FTA as opposed to those which are already duty-free and, finally, we examine the effects on both the extensive margin (probability to export products) and the intensive margin (change in the value of products exported). As far as the EU is concerned, the figures indicate that the FTA has increased the probability to export by about 11.2% while the value of exports has been boosted by 10.7%. In case of Korea, the impact is smaller. The average probability to export has increased by 4.8% while the value of Korean exports has risen by 2.0% as a result of the agreement.
    • 8 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 424Kb
  16. Access to medicines: Evaluation of council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines - Executive Summary
    • Abstract: Charles River Associates (CRA) has been commissioned by DG Trade of the European Commission to evaluate the council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines as part of the Commission's regulatory fitness and performance programme (REFIT).
    • 2 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 93Kb
  17. Analysis: Guidelines on the analysis of human rights impacts in impact assessments for trade-related policy initiatives
    • Abstract: In-house methodology to aid consideration of the human rights situation in third countries in connection with the launch or conclusion of trade and/or investment agreements.
    • 2 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 849Kb
  18. Access to medicines: Evaluation of council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines
    • Abstract: Charles River Associates (CRA) has been commissioned by DG Trade of the European Commission to evaluate the council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines as part of the Commission's regulatory fitness and performance programme (REFIT).
    • 1 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 3384Kb
  19. Analysis: International public procurement: from scant facts to hard data
    • Abstract: Public procurement is a negotiating area gaining in importance at multilateral and bilateral level, as evidenced by a brief review of procurement provisions in existing trade agreements. The size of procurement spending stands in most developed economies at double-digit percentage points of GDP. However, despite the size and importance of these markets, the factual information available to trade negotiators remains scarce. Although public procurement patterns (e.g. size of procurement markets, composition of procurement spending and level of government procurement) can be derived from traditional national accounts statistics, these figures fall short of capturing the international dimension of public procurement. Hence, the paper puts forward a basic conceptual framework for data collection on public procurement that would best serve the future negotiating agenda in this area.
    • 21 April 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 607Kb
  20. Analysis: "Moving beyond ‘soft’ regulatory processes for non tariff barriers"
    • Abstract: "Moving beyond ‘soft’ regulatory processes for nontariff barriers: can the EU and the US realize an instrument for equivalency recognition?" is the title of the presentation given by Dr. James Mathis from the University of Amsterdam at the Chief Economist Seminar on the 27.02.2015.
    • 27 February 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 262Kb

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Cecilia Malmström