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Analysis

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  1. Analysis: THE EU-KOREA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: ANTICIPATION, TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND IMPACT
    • Abstract: Anticipatory trade effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) have been documented in various papers. That is, trade between two partners appears to increase before an FTA between them has entered into force. Several reasons have been put forward trying to explain this phenomenon; among them reduced trade policy uncertainty. Firstly, using an econometric framework, this paper is one of the first to explore the role of anticipation and trade policy uncertainty (e.g. the presence of unbound tariffs and lower applied tariffs than bound tariffs) in the case of a recently concluded deep and comprehensive EU FTA, including significant behind the border measures. We do so by separately considering the impact of the FTA during different periods of time. Secondly, we use monthly data at a lower level of aggregation (8-digit level) compared to previous studies and we account for changes in the EU product classification over time. Thirdly, we distinguish between the impact on products which are actually subject to liberalisation under the FTA as opposed to those which are already duty-free and, finally, we examine the effects on both the extensive margin (probability to export products) and the intensive margin (change in the value of products exported). As far as the EU is concerned, the figures indicate that the FTA has increased the probability to export by about 11.2% while the value of exports has been boosted by 10.7%. In case of Korea, the impact is smaller. The average probability to export has increased by 4.8% while the value of Korean exports has risen by 2.0% as a result of the agreement.
    • 8 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 424Kb
  2. Analysis: Guidelines on the analysis of human rights impacts in impact assessments for trade-related policy initiatives
    • Abstract: In-house methodology to aid consideration of the human rights situation in third countries in connection with the launch or conclusion of trade and/or investment agreements.
    • 2 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 849Kb
  3. Access to medicines: Evaluation of council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines - Executive Summary
    • Abstract: Charles River Associates (CRA) has been commissioned by DG Trade of the European Commission to evaluate the council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines as part of the Commission's regulatory fitness and performance programme (REFIT).
    • 2 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 93Kb
  4. Access to medicines: Evaluation of council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines
    • Abstract: Charles River Associates (CRA) has been commissioned by DG Trade of the European Commission to evaluate the council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines as part of the Commission's regulatory fitness and performance programme (REFIT).
    • 1 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 3384Kb
  5. Analysis: International public procurement: from scant facts to hard data
    • Abstract: Public procurement is a negotiating area gaining in importance at multilateral and bilateral level, as evidenced by a brief review of procurement provisions in existing trade agreements. The size of procurement spending stands in most developed economies at double-digit percentage points of GDP. However, despite the size and importance of these markets, the factual information available to trade negotiators remains scarce. Although public procurement patterns (e.g. size of procurement markets, composition of procurement spending and level of government procurement) can be derived from traditional national accounts statistics, these figures fall short of capturing the international dimension of public procurement. Hence, the paper puts forward a basic conceptual framework for data collection on public procurement that would best serve the future negotiating agenda in this area.
    • 21 April 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 607Kb
  6. Analysis: "Moving beyond ‘soft’ regulatory processes for non tariff barriers"
    • Abstract: "Moving beyond ‘soft’ regulatory processes for nontariff barriers: can the EU and the US realize an instrument for equivalency recognition?" is the title of the presentation given by Dr. James Mathis from the University of Amsterdam at the Chief Economist Seminar on the 27.02.2015.
    • 27 February 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 262Kb
  7. Analysis: Towards “Trade Policy Analysis 2.0” - from national comparative advantage to firm-level trade data
    • Abstract: This paper makes the case for the need to "upgrade" current analytical tools used for trade policy analysis and complement them with more detailed firmlevel data. Such an upgrade should be based on the latest intellectual advancements in trade theories and the latest firm-level trade statistics that are now becoming widely available. An upgraded "Trade Policy Analysis 2.0" could contribute to several trade policy priorities and to a better understanding of the benefits from international trade for firm competitiveness, job creation and consumer welfare.
    • 25 November 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 249Kb
  8. Analysis: "SMEs are more important than you think! - Challenges and opportunities for EU exporting SMEs"
    • Abstract: This paper highlights the heterogeneity among SMEs exporting outside the EU across EU Member States and reviews how barriers facing SMEs can be tackled trade policy discussions. With over 600,000 goods exporting SMEs (over 80% of the total number of EU goods exporting firms) accounting for one third of total EU exports and employing over 6 million people in Europe, EU exporting SMEs play a non-negligible role in EU trade performance. However, SMEs have an untapped export potential, given the intrinsic and trade-specific hurdles that SMEs still face.
    • 22 September 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 493Kb
  9. Analysis: Determinants of direct cross-border public procurement in EU Member States
    • Abstract: Chief Economist Note July 2014
    • 29 July 2014
    • Type: Official document
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 766Kb
  10. Analysis: Chief Economist Note: "Thinking in a box: A ‘Mode 5’ approach to service trade"
    • Abstract: This paper draws the attention to the growing importance of services inputs in manufacturing sectors’ exports in the EU and beyond. The GATS existing four modes of supply do not adequately cover this type of indirect services value-added trade. Hence, theoretically, the case for a new indirect mode of services supply - ‘mode 5’ - is made. On the basis of the TiVA database, our estimates of mode 5 services exports point to a substantial share of total merchandise trade. The paper also finds that from a ‘mode 5’ perspective, services embodied into products are also subject to fairly complex trade rules. One such example illustrated in this paper is the area of customs valuation. Other issues (trade facilitation, rules of origin) could have an impact on the way ‘mode 5’ services are traded. The renewed impetus at the WTO on trade facilitation and the post-Bali agenda should provide a new opportunity for policy makers to forge trade rules that are well-suited for the ways in which goods and services interact along global supply chains.
    • 6 March 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 655Kb
  11. Analysis: China-EU Global Value Chains: Who Creates Value, How And Where?
    • Abstract: This report was commissioned and financed by consultant for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade.
    • 27 January 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 6121Kb
  12. Analysis: EU-US Economic linkages: the role of multinationals and intra-firm trade
    • Abstract: EU-US economic relations go beyond that of traditional trade ties. Multinational companies and their affiliates abroad do not only represent vital elements of each other's domestic economy but are also major determinants of the movement of goods and capital across borders. In the light of the on-going Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations it becomes increasingly important to consider the impact of a given trade policy change on traditionally over-looked economic variables such as foreign affiliate output, value added and intra-firm trade.
    • 28 November 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 1308Kb
  13. Analysis: EU External Competitiveness: recent developments (On-line appendix)
    • Abstract: This online appendix is replicating the results of the report taking account of intra-EU trade (not included in the main report), and providing results (with and without intra-EU trade) for individual Member States.
    • 4 November 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 1372Kb
  14. Analysis: EU External Competitiveness: recent developments
    • Abstract: In a previous report prepared on the basis of data up to 2005, European Union external competitiveness was shown to be resilient to the emergence of new competitors. The explanations for this rather good performance by European industry were the fact that the EU has managed to exploit its advantage in top quality (and to a lesser extent technological) products; and that it has exploited the diversity of its comparative advantage based on low cost producing locations and excellent laboratories in several domains. The purpose of the present report is to revisit these issues using more recent data, to take account of new developments in the analysis of Global Value Chains (GVC), and generally to take stock of the dramatic macroeconomic counter-performances in Europe since 2008. Our current conclusions differ from those in the previous report.
    • 4 November 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 2795Kb
  15. Singapore: Study on estimated benefits of the EU-Singapore FTA
    • Abstract: The economic impact of the EU - Singapore Free Trade Agreement. This report is part of the Chief Economist Notes working paper series produced by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade.
    • 24 September 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 2055Kb
  16. Analysis: Reducing Transatlantic barriers to trade and investment - an economic assessment
    • Abstract: An in-depth study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research - London on the potential effects of the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
    • 12 March 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 3618Kb
  17. United States: Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment - an economic assessment
    • Abstract: An in-depth study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research - London on the potential effects of the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership has been released. 12 March 2013.
    • 12 March 2013
    • Type: Other
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 3377Kb
  18. Analysis: Study: Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment (annexe)
    • Abstract: Study: Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment (annexe)
    • 12 March 2013
    • Type: Other
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 1130Kb
  19. Analysis: A comparative analysis of EU and US trade preferences for the LDCs and the AGOA beneficiaries
    • Abstract: In light of the much praised US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), this study compares EU and US preferential trade policies towards the least developed countries (LDCs) under the EU Everything but Arms (EBA) initiative and the countries covered by the US AGOA. The descriptive analysis examines and compares product coverage, diversification of imports, share and value of preferential imports and preference utilisation rates. The empirical analysis, conducted in a gravity setting, compares the relative trade creating effects of the EU and US schemes. Excluding mineral fuels, it finds that EU preferential trade policies generate about twice as much trade as do corresponding US policies.
    • 7 February 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 300Kb
  20. Analysis: "ASSEMBLED IN EUROPE" - THE ROLE OF PROCESSING TRADE IN EU EXPORT PERFORMANCE
    • Abstract: This column investigates the use and role of processing trade - a trade regime credited as a key driver of Chinese export performance but largely overlooked in Europe - on the overall and sectoral EU trade performance in recent years. It argues that, despite its rather low profile in trade debates, EU exports after inward processing accounted for around 10% of total extra-EU exports in 2011. Given its non-negligible share, processing trade procedures may require further reflection on how to maximize its benefits for EU's external competitiveness.
    • 12 October 2012
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 229Kb

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Cecilia Malmström