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Analysis

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  1. Analysis: EU EXPORTS TO THE WORLD: OVERVIEW OF EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME
    • Abstract: • As trade agreements create the conditions for an increase in EU exports they also foster more and better job opportunities for European citizens. From 1995 to 2011 the number of jobs in the EU that were supported by exports of goods and services to the rest of the world increased by 67% to reach around 31 million. These represented 1 in 7 jobs across the 27 EU Member States (up from 1 in 11 jobs in 1995). They tended to be high-skilled and were on average better paid. • In order to remain competitive EU exporters increasingly rely also on foreign inputs. This means that the employment they support progressively spans beyond the EU's borders. In 2011 about 19 million jobs outside the EU depended on EU exports. This means that in 2011 a total of 50 million people around the world had jobs thanks to the EU exporting industries. • Exports are important for employment in all Member States. In 2011 only in Greece (7%), Portugal (8%) and Spain (9%) did the EU exports to the rest of the world support less than 10% of total employment. In Luxembourg they supported a third of all jobs; in Ireland 25%. • Increasingly the jobs supported by EU exports are related to services. Services exports are growing fast but that is not the whole story. The importance of services sectors as suppliers of inputs to the production of the goods for export (“mode 5 services” exports) also stands out from the data. In 2011, 40% of the employment supported by the exports of the primary and manufacturing sectors was in fact in services. • The sales of goods and services to the US market were responsible for 15% of the EU employment supported by EU exports; other key markets to sustaining
    • 3 February 2016
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 1739Kb
  2. Analysis: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN IMPORT BAN: A CGE ANALYSIS
    • Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the Russian embargo from 7 August 2014 on certain agricultural food products from the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia. The effects of this economic sanction are analysed in the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a particular focus on bilateral and total exports, production and welfare. The detailed, based on real trade data, calibration of the model allows for an exact identification of the sectoral shares and prohibitive tariffs aggregated to match the CGE model’s sectoral level of aggregation. In addition, the paper carries on a validation exercise to compare the model’s predictions with real trade data developments. The modelling simulation results show that the impact of the ban on total exports of the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia are limited. Total extra-EU exports decline by merely 0.12%. Nevertheless at a disaggregate level there are sectors – ‘vegetables and fruits’, ‘other meat’ and ‘dairy products’ – which experience two digit percentage change declines.
    • 10 December 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 695Kb
  3. Analysis: THE EU-KOREA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: ANTICIPATION, TRADE POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND IMPACT
    • Abstract: Anticipatory trade effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) have been documented in various papers. That is, trade between two partners appears to increase before an FTA between them has entered into force. Several reasons have been put forward trying to explain this phenomenon; among them reduced trade policy uncertainty. Firstly, using an econometric framework, this paper is one of the first to explore the role of anticipation and trade policy uncertainty (e.g. the presence of unbound tariffs and lower applied tariffs than bound tariffs) in the case of a recently concluded deep and comprehensive EU FTA, including significant behind the border measures. We do so by separately considering the impact of the FTA during different periods of time. Secondly, we use monthly data at a lower level of aggregation (8-digit level) compared to previous studies and we account for changes in the EU product classification over time. Thirdly, we distinguish between the impact on products which are actually subject to liberalisation under the FTA as opposed to those which are already duty-free and, finally, we examine the effects on both the extensive margin (probability to export products) and the intensive margin (change in the value of products exported). As far as the EU is concerned, the figures indicate that the FTA has increased the probability to export by about 11.2% while the value of exports has been boosted by 10.7%. In case of Korea, the impact is smaller. The average probability to export has increased by 4.8% while the value of Korean exports has risen by 2.0% as a result of the agreement.
    • 8 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 424Kb
  4. Analysis: Guidelines on the analysis of human rights impacts in impact assessments for trade-related policy initiatives
    • Abstract: In-house methodology to aid consideration of the human rights situation in third countries in connection with the launch or conclusion of trade and/or investment agreements.
    • 2 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 849Kb
  5. Access to medicines: Evaluation of council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines - Executive Summary
    • Abstract: Charles River Associates (CRA) has been commissioned by DG Trade of the European Commission to evaluate the council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines as part of the Commission's regulatory fitness and performance programme (REFIT).
    • 2 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 93Kb
  6. Access to medicines: Evaluation of council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines
    • Abstract: Charles River Associates (CRA) has been commissioned by DG Trade of the European Commission to evaluate the council regulation (EC) 953/2003 to avoid trade diversion into the European Union of certain key medicines as part of the Commission's regulatory fitness and performance programme (REFIT).
    • 1 July 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 3384Kb
  7. Analysis: International public procurement: from scant facts to hard data
    • Abstract: Public procurement is a negotiating area gaining in importance at multilateral and bilateral level, as evidenced by a brief review of procurement provisions in existing trade agreements. The size of procurement spending stands in most developed economies at double-digit percentage points of GDP. However, despite the size and importance of these markets, the factual information available to trade negotiators remains scarce. Although public procurement patterns (e.g. size of procurement markets, composition of procurement spending and level of government procurement) can be derived from traditional national accounts statistics, these figures fall short of capturing the international dimension of public procurement. Hence, the paper puts forward a basic conceptual framework for data collection on public procurement that would best serve the future negotiating agenda in this area.
    • 21 April 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 607Kb
  8. Analysis: "Moving beyond ‘soft’ regulatory processes for non tariff barriers"
    • Abstract: "Moving beyond ‘soft’ regulatory processes for nontariff barriers: can the EU and the US realize an instrument for equivalency recognition?" is the title of the presentation given by Dr. James Mathis from the University of Amsterdam at the Chief Economist Seminar on the 27.02.2015.
    • 27 February 2015
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 262Kb
  9. Analysis: Towards “Trade Policy Analysis 2.0” - from national comparative advantage to firm-level trade data
    • Abstract: This paper makes the case for the need to "upgrade" current analytical tools used for trade policy analysis and complement them with more detailed firmlevel data. Such an upgrade should be based on the latest intellectual advancements in trade theories and the latest firm-level trade statistics that are now becoming widely available. An upgraded "Trade Policy Analysis 2.0" could contribute to several trade policy priorities and to a better understanding of the benefits from international trade for firm competitiveness, job creation and consumer welfare.
    • 25 November 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 249Kb
  10. Analysis: "SMEs are more important than you think! - Challenges and opportunities for EU exporting SMEs"
    • Abstract: This paper highlights the heterogeneity among SMEs exporting outside the EU across EU Member States and reviews how barriers facing SMEs can be tackled trade policy discussions. With over 600,000 goods exporting SMEs (over 80% of the total number of EU goods exporting firms) accounting for one third of total EU exports and employing over 6 million people in Europe, EU exporting SMEs play a non-negligible role in EU trade performance. However, SMEs have an untapped export potential, given the intrinsic and trade-specific hurdles that SMEs still face.
    • 22 September 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 493Kb
  11. Analysis: Determinants of direct cross-border public procurement in EU Member States
    • Abstract: Chief Economist Note July 2014
    • 29 July 2014
    • Type: Official document
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 766Kb
  12. Analysis: Chief Economist Note: "Thinking in a box: A ‘Mode 5’ approach to service trade"
    • Abstract: This paper draws the attention to the growing importance of services inputs in manufacturing sectors’ exports in the EU and beyond. The GATS existing four modes of supply do not adequately cover this type of indirect services value-added trade. Hence, theoretically, the case for a new indirect mode of services supply - ‘mode 5’ - is made. On the basis of the TiVA database, our estimates of mode 5 services exports point to a substantial share of total merchandise trade. The paper also finds that from a ‘mode 5’ perspective, services embodied into products are also subject to fairly complex trade rules. One such example illustrated in this paper is the area of customs valuation. Other issues (trade facilitation, rules of origin) could have an impact on the way ‘mode 5’ services are traded. The renewed impetus at the WTO on trade facilitation and the post-Bali agenda should provide a new opportunity for policy makers to forge trade rules that are well-suited for the ways in which goods and services interact along global supply chains.
    • 6 March 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 655Kb
  13. Analysis: China-EU Global Value Chains: Who Creates Value, How And Where?
    • Abstract: This report was commissioned and financed by consultant for the European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade.
    • 27 January 2014
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 6121Kb
  14. Analysis: EU-US Economic linkages: the role of multinationals and intra-firm trade
    • Abstract: EU-US economic relations go beyond that of traditional trade ties. Multinational companies and their affiliates abroad do not only represent vital elements of each other's domestic economy but are also major determinants of the movement of goods and capital across borders. In the light of the on-going Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations it becomes increasingly important to consider the impact of a given trade policy change on traditionally over-looked economic variables such as foreign affiliate output, value added and intra-firm trade.
    • 28 November 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 1308Kb
  15. Analysis: EU External Competitiveness: recent developments
    • Abstract: In a previous report prepared on the basis of data up to 2005, European Union external competitiveness was shown to be resilient to the emergence of new competitors. The explanations for this rather good performance by European industry were the fact that the EU has managed to exploit its advantage in top quality (and to a lesser extent technological) products; and that it has exploited the diversity of its comparative advantage based on low cost producing locations and excellent laboratories in several domains. The purpose of the present report is to revisit these issues using more recent data, to take account of new developments in the analysis of Global Value Chains (GVC), and generally to take stock of the dramatic macroeconomic counter-performances in Europe since 2008. Our current conclusions differ from those in the previous report.
    • 4 November 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 2795Kb
  16. Analysis: EU External Competitiveness: recent developments (On-line appendix)
    • Abstract: This online appendix is replicating the results of the report taking account of intra-EU trade (not included in the main report), and providing results (with and without intra-EU trade) for individual Member States.
    • 4 November 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 1372Kb
  17. Singapore: Study on estimated benefits of the EU-Singapore FTA
    • Abstract: The economic impact of the EU - Singapore Free Trade Agreement. This report is part of the Chief Economist Notes working paper series produced by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade.
    • 24 September 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 2055Kb
  18. Analysis: Reducing Transatlantic barriers to trade and investment - an economic assessment
    • Abstract: An in-depth study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research - London on the potential effects of the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.
    • 12 March 2013
    • Type: Issues and policies
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 3618Kb
  19. United States: Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment - an economic assessment
    • Abstract: An in-depth study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research - London on the potential effects of the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership has been released. 12 March 2013.
    • 12 March 2013
    • Type: Other
    • Source: Other source
    • Format: PDF 3377Kb
  20. Analysis: Study: Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment (annexe)
    • Abstract: Study: Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment (annexe)
    • 12 March 2013
    • Type: Other
    • Source: Commission
    • Format: PDF 1130Kb

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EU Trade Commissioner
Cecilia Malmström